Feb 13 2012

The Nottingham Office Review 2011

It’s obviously that time of year when we look back at the previous year – in an effort to make sense of what is going on in our market.

The assembled participants - and me enjoying myself despite the fact is was before 8am...

The Nottingham Office Review is a collaborative document which is drawn together by CoStar – but takes information from all of the key Nottingham Agents. they then try to analyse what has happened in the local market.

This years review can be found here.

It was my colleague Craig Straw who presented the findings on behalf of the Forum assembled. I don’t need to replicate the report – but it is fair to say that Nottingham held its own last year. The number of deals were reduced but what did happen made for an ‘ok’ year. We have certainly done better than Birmingham which has a near 20% vacancy rate – against our approximate 13%

We have nearly 2.3m sq ft of offices in the pipeline – which should hold us in good place for future occupiers.

But in the meantime what I did like were the reasons to look at the City – I am happy to cut and paste…

* 8th largest recruitment catchment in the UK
* Over 1.1 million people in the journey to work area
* Over 98% of the UK market within a 4 hour drive of the city
* Access to 55,000 students studying at Nottingham’s two universities
*Home to global businesses including Capital One, Experian, Alliance Boots, Speedo and E.On
* A leading Science City in the UK with research excellence in BioSciences, Low Carbon Technologies and Digital Media
* Cutting edge global digital infrastructure
* Award winning integrated transport network with two new tram lines under construction
* Top 6 retail destination
* The UK’s most energy self-sufficient city

Feb 12 2012

A new Audi – wow!

It’s fair to say that I miss my RS4 – it was by far the best car I ever owned. The three years I had it went by a ll too quickly. In the snow of last week, I missed the four-wheel drive! I guess I don’t miss the 13 mpg… But I do miss it!

It was the second Audi I had owned – the first was an Audi TT – which I also loved. But now Audi have gone and set a new benchmark – with the unveiling of a new go-faster version of the TT. The new 2012 TT RS Plus is a tuned version of the coupe and roadster with 355bhp – giving more horses than the Porsche Cayman R.

This is a very very fast car – 174mph is top speed. This is the limited speed – to stop the tyres blowing up! There’s no mpg figures yet so I figure that it will be eco-friendly.

0-62mph is 4.1 seconds. Which is a bit quicker than my RS4 – which was 4.6 seconds – and that was quick!

What I love most though are those wheels… They look really cool!

This looks like a very sensible choice for my next car? Thought you would agree…

Feb 11 2012

Motivational Sayings …

I keep coming across motivational sayings, but wonder about some of them. My current favourite is “No Pain – No Gain”, whereas in reality it should surely be, “No Pain – Good”.

So, in an effort to bring some of these sayings into line, I offer you the following:

“If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again” or rather ” If at first you don’t succeed – give up – try something easier” alternatively, “If at first you don’t succeed – try management”.

“Aim High to Reach your Goal” or “Aim low, reach your goal, avoid disappointment”.

“Never put off until tomorrow what can be done today” should be “Never put off until tomorrow what you can avoid altogether”.

And some others I quite like…

“Eagles may soar, but weasels don’t get sucked into jet engines.”

“Artificial Intelligence is no match for Natural Stupidity”

“A person who smiles in the face of adversity…probably has a scapegoat.”

“Plagiarism saves time.”

“Rome did not create a great empire by having meetings, they did it by killing all people who opposed them.”

“If you can stay calm, while all around you is chaos…then you probably haven’t completely understood the seriousness of the situation.”

“Never underestimate the power of very stupid people in large groups.”

“We waste time, so you don’t have to.”

“Hang in there, retirement is only fifty years away!”

I hope that these help shape your day today….

Feb 10 2012

2012 starts well….I think

I got my monthly snapshot of the market from Property Data which showed a reasonable start for January. Not as good as 2011 as you will see, but better than 2010 and 2009.

Although yields (the return on capital) have come in very slightly they are still pretty flat. The fall has been by around 0.25% against the last three, six and twelve month figures. It’s a step in the right direction. The lower the yield the higher the price paid. The last month showed an average of 6.09% – previously we have been stuck at around 6.35%

The market is still being skewed by a couple of deals. A Tesco portfolio was sold last month to Trinity College Cambridge for £450m and a portfolio of 14 warehouses were sold for £314m. These two deals account for nearly 40% of all transactions.

So, as previously it is difficult to read the tea leaves at the moment. It seems busier, we are seeing more enquiries – and there seems to be a little bit more of a positive feel about the place. Deals are still hard to do, due diligence is the new delay. Dotting of i’s and crossing the t’s takes time – especially when you do it two or three times! But there are some deals going on. Bank borrowing remains difficult.

It may be early days, but it would be nice to think that there was something of a revival going on. We certainly need some good news – the back end of 2008 seems a long time ago. Thats when the crunch hit. We had hoped that it might be short recession, but alas that wasn’t to be. The new world is here – maybe we are just getting acclimatised?

Feb 9 2012

Shops – more bad news….

More than one in four shops in Nottingham are lying empty, according to research from the Local Data Company.

Magnolia Bakery - New York

So lets start by saying that this is not quite the whole story – if you walk around the town it is clear that there are vacant shops but not 29% Its gone up by nearly 6% in the past six months. Across the UK the figure is 14.3% – so we fare pretty badly.

The Local Data Campany also suggested in the report that, “Weak consumer confidence, rising unemployment, the growth in retail sales by supermarkets and the internet, a significant number of retail leases coming to an end and the uncertainty in the banking sector, all leads to the view that shop vacancy rates are set to rise in 2012.”

So we could get worse?

Well, I don’t think so. The figures were done last November just as Westfield had emptied the BroadMarsh Centre. Then there is the small issue of what the City Centre is – it includes whole swathes of retail frontage which I don”t think are part of the City – Sneinton, Derby Road, Canning Circus and the like.

This isn’t the sort of headline we need. It’s not really representative either.

I have had cause this week to re-read the Mary Portas Review (more on why at a later date!) – she offers a panacea for our woes – which are so misplaced as to be pretty meaningless. The point is that we have have too many shops for not enough shoppers. And we need to address that fact first. We need to work out how we are going to redress the balance. I don’t have a simple answer – but we need to refocus and get some incentives from Government (in the form of Rates rebates / relief) as a starting point – for areas which can be rescued.

I am always amazed at New York and its ability to reinvent itself. You find areas which have been abandoned and then re-occupied. Artists, fashion designers, creative types and the like. Nottingham has that talent – we need to tap into it?

Feb 8 2012

Fred the Shred – the tip of the Iceberg

I never really understood the hounding of Sir Fred Goodwin ex CEO of RBS – especially by Politicians. Maybe I do get it – maybe it was all about headlines – Fred the Shred was a cheap shot – referring to his actions post the ABM Ambro merger in culling jobs.

Back in the summer of 2004 he was elevated to that highest honour – being Knighted – to become Sir Frederick Anderson Goodwin. But this is no longer. After the attempts to get him to hand back some of the money he had negotiated as part of his severance pay (especially by the then Prime Minister Gordon Brown) he now gets zapped again by the Government machine. He has apparently brought the Country into disrepute and must revert to plain old Mr Goodwin.

It was apparently an ‘exceptional case’. I wonder why? He hasn’t been charged as far as I can see. Let alone convicted of a crime. The last people to lose their “Sir” titles were Robert Mugabe and Nicolae Ceausescu – blimey thats a big leap? Is he really in this category?

In the last few weeks we have started to see the trials of more Bankers in public. Their pay and bonuses, which was as far as I can see were agreed in advance of them joining or accepting new jobs, must now be slashed. The previous agreement doen’t suit us now. Not because they haven’t earned it, but because it grabs the attention of the ordinary man on the street and he is outraged at the money they earn. It’s called ‘gesture politics’.

I return to my previous view – we have started to live in a very polarised society where we seem to turn working folks – some of them very bright people – into villains. Does anyone really appreciate the pressure these people are under or what they actually do? I don’t think so. And stripping them of a Title won’t make any difference.

Feb 7 2012

Squash – alive and kicking

You might know that I play a lot of squash – I have been a member of Nottingham Squash Rackets Club for about 13 years now.

Fours a crowd...

Squash was a big sport in the 1970′s but rather lost its way later – it isn’t a great spectator sport if you haven’t played. It’s difficult to appreciate the skills of the worlds best players. Some of them are as fit as any other professional players in other sports. I would venture to suggest that they are fitter.

Squash has been described as like playing chess with a ball. It requires a level of fitness to play, but you also have to be able to think too. You need to out-think your opponent (of course he or she is trying to do the same).

At the weekend NSRC held its annual open squash doubles tournament. I love doubles – you might think that it is less physical (in theory you are doing half of the work) but in reality is it harder – it is more physical – within the constraints of a non-contact sport. You have to think for four people. There is much less room. It can be fast and furious. It certainly keeps you awake!

There were 144 entrants in the tournament at the weekend – with competitors from wide and far. I spoke to players from Northampton, Manchester and Grantham. The atmosphere was fantastic – and the evening ended with a great live band. It was just a pity that the snow started to fall by evening (I walked the four miles home in a little under two hours – but that’s another story).

It was great to see so many people enjoying the event. The standard of play was incredibly high and the club put on a good show…

Perhaps the game is coming back into fashion. If you haven’t played – try it. Come down to the club – tell them I sent you!

PS In case you are wondering my partner and I didn’t win…

Feb 6 2012

Small is beautiful?

You might remember that am an licensed assessor on the Assessment of Professional Competence for the RICS. I sit a couple of times each year to quiz students on their competences – and decide if they are worthy of the letter MRICS.

It is always interesting to compare the quality of candidates. You can usually tell those who work for the big firms – they have a fairly formulaic approach, they are well prepared and have been coached. There’s nothing wrong with that. Candidates from smaller firms are usually different – not quite the opposite of their counterparts in the big firms, but not far off. As candidates are judged on their stated (and pre-agreed) competences each have an equal chance of passing.

But sometimes I am frustrated by the process itself. I think we are in danger of producing almost robot like candidates. It’s a bit like our schools where we teach to test. Whilst that might be good if you work in a narrow field, it’s not always what we need in the profession. We don’t necessarily produce all-rounders and this is, I think a great pity.

When I have done work with Nottingham University one f things that always strikes me is their need to have students to think. It is about students trying to find solutions. The formulae don’t work in this environment.

I do think that we need to go back to having more rounded surveyors, ones who can think independently and find solutions – rather than rote learners. Our world is changing, there’s little point in us teaching the next generation of surveyors just one set of skills = they are going to, more than ever, need to be multi-skilled.

Unfortunately for the current crop of students the choice of whether a big, medium or small firm might be rather academic – it’s basically wherever there is a job…

Feb 5 2012

Live music – one to miss?

I’m a big fan of live music – in fact I’m just a fan of music period. I listen to it most days – and you can tell from yesterdays blog, I can re-discover some amazing stuff! I listen to all manner of stuff.

Nottingham is apparently in for a musical treat, enticingly titled,”A celebration of the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee Concert”. Not only will there be a playing of the Queens favourite tunes – Gershwin, Corro, Sir Cliff and Morcambe and Wise. Wow – edgy stuff indeed. Grungy it’s not. It’s unlikely theres going to be dancing in the aisle – more flag waving gently I figure. Mrs Windsor isn’t actually going I don’t think.

But the real treat is that this gig is going to be punctuated with anecdotes from that most regal of reporters, Jennie Bond. She is regarded as more royal than the royals. And she is going to be telling stories about her life and times with the royals.

It sounds like a fun night out – those groovy tunes and the prospect of Mrs Bond spilling the beans and dishing the dirt. Unfortunately, I can’t make this particular gig – I’m washing my hair. My loss – I know.