A new economy on the up – The Web Economy

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Most of us rely on the internet to a great extent; this blog only exists because you are a connected person. And the chances are that you buy books from Amazon, pick your news up at bbc.co.uk and send emails as a principal method of communication. 20 years ago none of this existed in our homes!

you may be able to order it on-line but would the Post Office deliver it?

Now we have access to the internet on our telephones. And that is about to grow, It is reckoned that by 2016 about 80% of all internet users will access the web using a mobile phone. Google have concluded a study which also suggests that by 2016 over 3bn people (around half of the population of the planet) will have access to the internet. It is also suggested that around the same time there will be one trillion devices connected to the internet at any one time.

And with that connectivity will come a shift in the way we buy things. In four years the Google study is suggesting that commercial activity on the internet will grow from the present £1.5tn to £2.7tn.

These are amazing figures, except that this still represents a tiny proportion of what we spend. It is around 4% of the total economy – so some way to go. And perhaps some cheer for our High Streets – which still have some place in our super-fast-always-on world. We still like to go and touch and feel stuff…

As I was reminded last week, there are some things that don’t work on-line. My morning dose of Costa Coffee for instance – I might be able to order it, but the delivery might be a little more challenging?

2011 – a miserable year for property…

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I guess we knew what the headlines were going to be – and they haven’t disappointed…even if they are disappointing!

One trillion pounds - piled up next to an arctic....

In the commercial market in 2011 the value of UK commercial property investment transactions in Q4 2011 was £8.69 billion, down 25% on the same period for 2010. We were hit hard by the lack of liquidity in the market and by the Euro-Crisis.

UK house sales fell last year to 869,000, one of the lowest totals on record, HM Revenue & Customs has said. House price growth was just 1% – which in the circumstances was probably fairly good!

This seems to have been a long depression – the back end of 2008 was when we saw the writing on the wall – that is nearly 3.5 years ago. I don’t think we ever anticipated the market to flat-line for so long.

This week the UK reached £1tn (£1,000,000,000,000) in debt. To understand what one trillion looks like – go and have a look at your doormat – 1 Trillion of them would cover the whole of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Alternatively if you had spent £1m every day since Jesus was born, you would still have some change!

The really worrying thing is that there is little sign of a change in the short term. However, in the medium term I am involved in a number of major projects which could come to fruition in 2013-15. They have a long lead in, but I take some comfort in the fact that people are considering them. Of course this Parliament must be dissolved by May 2015, it is unlikely that the current incumbents will want to go to the Country with the current state of play.

Further I suspect that there will be some monies available starting next year. We will have the Olympics out of the way – I doubt we will ever know how much that has cost us. The budget of £9.3bn is apparently robust, money we can ill afford in the current economic climate!

Perhaps it is better in the middle distance than we think? I hope so!

The internet – faster and faster … essential?

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The Chancellor of the Exchequer announced in the Autumn Statement the creation of a new £100 million Urban Broadband Fund (UBF) that will create up to ten super-connected cities across the UK with 80-100Mbps (megabits per second) broadband connectivity. That’s fast!

Belfast, Cardiff, Edinburgh, London and up to six further cities are going to receive support from the fund over the next three years to deliver these speeds.

I think that the ability of super-fast broadband is going to become a critical feature of our cities of the future. It is incredible to think that the internet is just a few years old and that, back then, we survived on dial up lines. But today most businesses are 100% reliant on the internet; either to communicate with itself or its clients. Our ability to gain information is critical.

If Nottingham wants to remain competitive then it needs to be on this new backbone. We need to lobby Government that this is essential. We have a fantastic creative quarter, centred on Antenna. For that to continue to grow it needs, as we all do, to have the very fastest connections we can get. I do know that my friends at Invest in Nottingham are coordinating Nottingham’s efforts to secure this for us.

It is not difficult to see that this is the future. As the capacity increases, the use of file sharing / collaborative working and video conferencing will become more useful. There is not doubt that our world is getting faster, travel times and costs are getting worse, so that points to a newer method of communication.

We are starting to get enquiries from occupiers that now include broadband connectivity as part of their wish list. This super-fast connectivity would give us a competitive advantage…

Local Radio – a dying art?

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I know quite a few people who work in local radio. Mainly because for about 10 years I worked with a lot of them at Nottingham Hospitals Radio. We had a great time – and I have fond memories of broadcasting to a limited audience in Nottingham’s three hospitals – The QMC (where the studios were based), the City Hospital and the (now closed) General Hospital.

I don’t listen to local radio if I am honest – in the car I mostly have my iPod on random play – I have around 53,000 tracks to get through! Occasionally I tune into Radio 4′s Today Programme and if I am in the mood, I can cope with Radio 6 – along with the 3 other people who are tuned into DAB!

But Radio Nottingham does play an important role locally. The audience may well be ‘older’, but it is about community. I know that for some people (my mum included) it provides company. It also carries local stories which aren’t big enough for the nationals.

I can’t listen to our local commercial stations – the adverts drive me to distraction. So, good old Auntie Beeb does have some benefits! But the problem here may be that with the ongoing cuts some of these local services could be under threat. This is not a good thing!

I have mentioned before that there is a prospect of Nottingham TV taking off – and I am excited by the prospect of this. But it isn’t a replacement for radio – which has a particular place in the chatter. It isn’t it a replacement for the “kids” world of Twitter, Facebook and social media generally. Some of the people tuned into to local radio don’t have access to the latter.

Sometimes it doesn’t have to be about the money – or the listening figures. When I worked at NHR we knew that it was a small audience, but someone (wiser than me) once said that if we cheered just one person up – we were doing something useful.

The Millennium Trilogy – brilliant

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I have just managed to finish the 9 hours of sub-titled trilogy from Stieg Larsson – the story of Lisbeth Salander. Also known as The Girl with The Dragon Tattoo, The Girl who Played with Fire and The Girl Who Kicked the Hornets Nest.

Trust me - you don't want to mess with her...

I have never read the books but watched the first film whilst sat on the tarmac at Shanghai Airport (all three hours of it) earlier this year. We hadn’t taken off – but I had finished the film and had a meal! I loved the film but found the small screen quite tough to read the sub-titles on! So the Blue Ray disc set arrived at Christmas.

I did try it with the English dubbing, but it was awful, so I reverted to the sub-titles again after about 10 minutes. You have to concentrate!

It is a brilliant story, if not a little dark in places. The rape scenes are a bit disturbing, but Lisbeth (brilliantly played by Noomi Rapace) does get her own back with a tattoo machine! There are some surprises along the way. All in all it’s a good yarn.

I understand that the late Steig was working on a fourth book in the cries when he died suddenly, aged 50. That book is expected to be finished in absentia. I can’t wait.

But in the meantime, I’m in no hurry to see the English version of the film. I have no idea if it is any good (although it seems to be doing well at the Box Office), I just know that sometimes the original versions of things should be left untouched – The Italian Job, The Olympus OM1 and Blue Stilton Cheese…

I bet you didn’t think you could get from a Swedish rape scene to Blue Stilton Cheese back to Michael Cane all in one blog post?

Nottinghamshire Police – a pat on the back

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The Nottinghamshire Police seem to get some bad press. I deliberately didn’t watch the Channel 4 documentary ‘Coppers‘ as I had been warned it was a somewhat biased and unflattering picture of the Nottingham – and it’s underworld.

One of the stolen bikes....

Unfortunately I became a Crime statistic at the weekend. Some charmers broke into my garage in the dead of night, found some ‘hidden’ keys and took 2 bikes – both Trek hybrids. They were 6 months old. They were bound together with a combination lock and wire. The thieves must have cut the wire, although they didn’t leave the remains here!

My son came home at around 4am to discover the garage open and the bikes gone. We called the Police – who were very helpful. They seemed more awake than me!

I had expected to just get a crime number and then be consigned to the statistics file. But I haven’t been. Two officers have been to see us – twice. They want pictures of the bikes, frame numbers, values. Yesterday a Community Officer called to say he had been to see all of our neighbours (who hadn’t heard anything). I had a call from the Scenes of Crime people – asking if I thought it worth them checking the place for fingerprints.

I haven’t got my bikes back (yet?) but I am impressed with the efforts of the Police to date. Well done to the Nottinghamshire Police.

Oh, and if you know someone who has nicked my bikes – tell them to be careful on one of them, the suspension is broken and could be dangerous to ride. It was waiting to be fixed. On second thoughts – don’t tell them…

My broken Amazon Kindle… and great customer service

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For some reason my Kindle has parted company with this life. The screen has frozen – the only visible image is half of the face of Enid Blyton with vertical and horizontal lines across the rest of the screen. It’s not easy to read my Steve Job’s biography!

What my Kindle used to look like...

I have no idea what has happened, I don’t think it has been dropped or otherwise abused – it lives permanently in the case it came with.

So, I thought I would see what Amazon thought. They have a web-page with some self-help remedies. None worked for me. Then you can email them, which I did. I got a fairly quick response (less than 12 hours) asking me to call them via a link on their website. You basically enter your phone number and asks them to call – your two options are ‘now’ or ‘in 5 minutes’. i opted for ‘now’. The phone instantly rang!

I went through a few details with the lady – she obvious knew who I was. She decided that it was definitely broken and said they would post me a new one. I need to send the other one back. She emailed me a confirmation and a return label to print. I have to use the ‘new’ box – and someone is going to collect it from my work…

When my new Kindle arrives, I simply have to register it and all of my books will automatically download!

To put it mildly, I am impressed. There was no fuss, no drama and the whole thing couldn’t have been easier. After my last dealing with Sky, this was a refreshing change. And, I’m looking forward to getting back to the life and times of the late Steve Jobs.

Well done Amazon – this is exceptional customer service…

The decline of the English Language?

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I must be getting old (you don’t have to agree). I am certainly getting more grumpy about some of the phrases I hear on TV or Radio.

Last week, I happened to catch The Biggest Loser presented by one of my least favourite presenters, Davina McCall. It was an appalling ‘show’ pretending to be entertainment. But the worst part was when Davina calculated the percentage weight loss of the victims. She pronounced at every calculation that they had lost a precise figure – as an example,”two point fourteen” percent of their weight. No they haven’t. It, as anyone with a basic education knows is, “Two point one four percent”. It is wrong at this level, but imagine if the percentage had been to four places – would that be “Two point four thousand three hundred and fifteen percent”. No – that would be silly. This woman didn’t do it once, but at every turn.

I used to be irritated by Trevor Francis’ inability to pronounce Nottingham, It’s not Nottnum. He might have been the first million pound player, but he couldn’t pronounce where he played for. A poor effort. Nottingham isn’t that difficult – it’s not like he had to play for Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch

The latest thing I hear from some ‘young people’ (see – I am getting old!) is the dropping of certain words – they speak like they text. Apparently we no longer “go to town”. We “go town”. That saves the vocal chords a lot of effort. The “town” part acquires a “Taan” bent too.

I love it when I get “aksed” a question. It is “asked’ – that’s how it is spelled and pronounced. Being “axed” is a whole different proposition. It hurts generally and can be misconstrued.

You often hear learned folks on the Radio or TV explaining that language ‘evolves’. It develops and changes over time. But in these cases it is just wrong. Nor is it difficult to get it right?

OK, I admit it I am old and grumpy.

Valuation – an art or a science?

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I think I know the answer to this. It is a (black) art. But it does have a bit of science (maths) behind it. It is not a precise science.

When I was doing some research last year with the University of Nottingham, I was surprised about how they scrutinise quite scientifically their work. They test, test and test again. They want to find precise answers. It is a very scientific approach.

Valuation is not.

My Institution have announced that in 2013 they will issue a re-written Red Book. The Red Book is our bible – which applies mandatorily to much of the valuation work I undertake. It is prescriptive to the extent that it covers the process of valuation and sets out some key principles. It is useful in setting a standard.

But the latest changes could be interesting. There is a suggestion that the Banks are unhappy that we didn’t spot the crash – or at least alert them to the fact that the market was over-heated. It looks like the ‘new’ Red Book will ask for more commentary and more scenario building. Future value prediction could be asked for. And this is what I am worried about.

I am not a mind reader. A valuation is a snap-shot. It is an opinion on a given date. There are lots of assumptions. Quite a lot of our reports are taken up with them. Some clients ask me why the reports are 20 pages long – they want the 2 pages with the description and ‘number’ on. The rest is academic! When I started out, we used to provide a 2 page ‘valuation certificate’. I’m not suggesting that we return to those days, but our reports are going to get longer. The only true value is when a property sells – willing buyer, willing seller et al. On other occasions we are giving an opinion.

My concern is that we are moving away from opinion. As I have said before, people pay me for my opinion – not my doubts. Somehow, I think such change might raise lots of doubts?

The buck stops where?

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I wasn’t sure that the mob-rule hounding down of the Captain of the Costa Concordia was quite right. We don’t know the facts yet and I would prefer to get some before he is hung out to dry.

He was being compared on the Radio to the hero Captain, Chesley Sullenberger, who steered his failing plane into the freezing Hudson River then made sure everyone was clear of the plane before getting off himself. When I learned to fly, there was much emphasis on your responsibilities to others!

I am not sure that the Captain of a ship has to stay until the last man is free – I think this may be a rather romantic myth. It might not be possible for him to be the last man – some of these cruise ships are vast beasts. He may have no concept of where he is in relation to others. I’m not saying he was right, rather the we don’t know the facts.

But I was also thinking about the story I read about in Malcolm Gladwells’ Tipping Point. He was reflecting on why Korean Air had such a poor safety record. No one could understand it, they were using western planes which were generally ok elsewhere in the world. Then there was a realisation that there was a very much a hierarchy in the Korean Airlines where the Captain was seen as God-like. He was on a pedestal to the extent that no one dare question him. So, as problems arose, everyone assumed he was in control. Even if the plane was about to crash…

You do have to wonder that as our machines get more complex and bigger whether it is right for one person to have absolute control? Sometimes perhaps the buck needs to stop with more than one person?